Forecasts and weather routing
The boat is prepared, and I hope I am ready too - but what about the wind?
After weeks of a major heat wave, the weather is changing tonight! It will be much cooler (a welcome change). However, this is not a trivial situation for forecasts models - they don't all agree with each other. I am leaning towards trusting the French AROME model with is a high-resolution one (mesh size 1.3km), but also to compare various forecasts to what I really see on the water tomorrow morning before the start.
I've discussed these topics with Michał at several occasions - already back in January, but also in the recent days. He recommends studying part tracks of winning boats on previous Translemanique and Bol d'Or regatta (which is always a good idea). He suggested comparing a few high resolution models like French AROME and German Icon (to this list, I'm adding the UKMO model, and PredictWind's PWE/PWG models). Finally, he proposed to actually do weather routing, and to try different software packages. This last point is tricky - such weather routing makes perfect sense for offshore sailing/racing. However, I've tried a few solutions (Squid X/mobile, qtVlm, PredictWind/Offshore) for Lac Leman, using J/80 polar, and so far none was overly convincing. I'll try again tonight to see if they suggest anything interesting. Big thanks also to Michał for analysing the situation, and testing various models and different software on hist side, and sharing the results with me!
The last point is that RRS (Racing Rules of Sailing) rule 41 forbids competitors to use external help and non-public communication once the race starts (which means the preparatory -5 minutes signal). NoR (Notice of Race) point 3.3 reminds about it, too. And Michał pointed be to RRS case 120 which clarifies how "information freely available" should be interpreted. An interesting read!
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